Vegas Odds Trump Wall

I’m the only national political commentator (and Vegas oddsmaker) who has predicted a Brexit-like election result for Donald Trump since day one.

I’ve stuck with my prediction through thick and thin, through derision, through laughter, through polls showing Hillary leading by 13 points, through every “expert” predicting a Hillary landslide up until only two weeks ago.

Vegas betting odds suggest Trump will declare his 2024 reelection bid at CPAC on Sunday. The former president is expected to use his speech to talk about the future of the Republican Party. Under 7.5 (-120 odds) How Many Times Will Trump Say “Crisis?” Over 6.5 (-120 odds) Under 6.5 (-120 odds) Will Funding For the Border Wall Be Approved? Yes (+150 odds) No (-200 odds) Who Will Speak First After Trump’s Speech? Nancy Pelosi (-200 odds) Chuck Schumer (+150 odds) How Long Will The Democrat Rebuttal Last? Over 11.5 minutes. 'The odds of Trump running in 2024 and not representing the Republican party are 4 to 1, which equates to just a 20% chance.' More than a dozen CPAC attendees interviewed by the Wall Street Journal have already said they would back Trump if he were to run again in 2024. The last time Bovada released similar odds were just after the election. 17 last year, Trump was 1-to-3 (-300) to make it a full term, meaning bookmakers believe it’s slightly more.

Don’t look now, but I’m about to look very smart. All the ingredients have fallen perfectly into place for “Trexit,” our own version of Brexit starring Donald Trump.

My final prediction? It’s the same one I told personally to Donald Trump a week ago. I was opening speaker at Trump’s rally in Las Vegas in front of 10,000 fans. When I saw Donald backstage I told him, “Here’s my prediction…You will win by a 10-point landslide…but Democrats cheat by 8 points…so the final official election results will show you won by 2.”

My prediction is based on three things: Brexit, Goldman Sachs and what I call the ANGRY WHITE ELECTORATE effect. Let’s start with Goldman Sachs.

It was only two weeks ago that Goldman Sachs actually felt the need to issue a report arguing this was not Brexit.

It was very clear to me at that moment, the very fact that the most powerful and politically-connected company on Wall Street felt the need to publicly debunk the Brexit angle was proof positive this was in fact Brexit.

Here’s the safest bet in life- when the powerful and connected of DC, or Wall Street, or the mainstream media, deny anything, you know it’s 100 percent true. Ask Hillary about her deleted emails, or Benghazi, or the Clinton Foundation, or whether she rigged the Democrat primary against Bernie Sanders. When they strongly deny, they always lie.

But I digress. Back to the Goldman Sachs report. Their argument two weeks ago was simple: this could not be Brexit because Brexit was closer in the polls than Trump. They claimed that Trump was losing badly.

In every poll before the shocking Brexit result, Brexit was trailing by an average of 4.4 points. But a few million white working class voters either weren’t on the pollsters radar, or weren’t talking publicly about their vote. Brexit shocked the pollsters and “experts” and won.

Skip ahead to today. Trump trails by 2, 3, or 4 in every single poll- ABC, CBS, Fox, Rasmussen, Bloomberg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls shows Hillary leads by 2.6 points.

Hey Goldman, don’t look now, but that’s dramatically LOWER than the 4.4 point average before Brexit.

None of this takes into account the most accurate poll of 2012 that predicted Obama’s victory exactly on the number. The IBD/TIPP poll reports Trump UP by 2 points nationally as of today. The USC/LA Times poll (the only poll to factor in enthusiasm and intensity) has Trump UP by 5 points.

I’ve made two predictions since day one. First that there is a 5-point “Hidden Trump factor” missing from every poll. There is 5 percent of the population that is unwilling or embarrassed to say in public (in the face of nonstop biased-liberal media derision) that they support Trump. Add in that 5 percent and Trump wins the election, now that every poll is within 2 to 4 points. I disagreed with Goldman Sachs two weeks ago, but they are clearly dead wrong today. This is our version of Brexit.

My second prediction was that Trump would win based on the biggest turnout of white voters in history, combined with low turnout for blacks. Both patterns appear to be happening based on early voting patterns.

I wrote the book “ANGRY WHITE MALE.” I predicted the greatest turnout of angry white working class and middle class males in history. I was only partially correct. At last Sunday’s Trump rally in Las Vegas the audience was 60 percent or more white women. Trump is loved by white males, but it appears white females feel the same way. This isn’t the ANGRY WHITE MALE election. It’s the ANGRY WHITE ELECTORATE election. Both white men and women will come out in record numbers for Trump.

I have predicted from day one that black voters can’t stand Hillary and would never come out for her in the same numbers they voted for Obama. If black turnout is down substantially, Trump wins. Its all about turnout, which is precisely why the USC/LA times poll shows Trump up by 5 points.

Now we come to the electoral college. Elections aren’t won by popular vote. They are won state by state. If Trump wins Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, it’s over for Democrats. It’s that simple. Trump is winning or within 1 point in all three crucial battleground states.

But Trump is also winning, tied or very close in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico. Mitt Romney lost all of those states. Trump could win all of them. But if he wins only half, plus Ohio and either Florida or North Carolina, he’s the President of the United States.

The best sign of all that Trump is on his way to a Brexit victory is the mock presidential election in Minnesota- one of our five most ultra-liberal states. High school kids across the state gave Trump a 34-32 victory a few days ago. In Minnesota!

Something special and shocking is happening folks. The mainstream media, Democrats, government and mainstream media haven’t a clue what’s about to hit them.

I call it Trexit.

My final prediction: Trump wins by 10, Democrats cheat by 8, he wins by 2.

Will America soon have its first Shawshank President? Will Donald Trump find himself fending off riots in the Attica mess hall? Tweetless and at the mercy of 2,000 “angry Democrat” inmates?

A number of recent developments show that one cannot rule it out. Things took a decidedly serious turn last week when New York prosecutors told a federal judge that there were “public reports of possibly extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization.” They added that they that they may also be investigating possible crimes involving bank and insurance fraud, according to the New York Times, which also reported that Deutsche Bank has been complying with a Manhattan District Attorney’s Office subpoena for months, turning over detailed financial records in connection with some $2 billion the bank has lent Trump.

The news comes on the heels of a Supreme Court ruling last month that declared the president was not immune from state criminal investigations, therefore clearing the way for a New York grand jury to subpoena Trump’s financial records, an effort spearheaded by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.

For Trump, the stakes couldn’t be higher once he leaves office: He could go from the White House to the Big House.

Vegas Odds Trump Election

So, I asked some experts the likelihood that the president could really wind up in a New York prison. “Absolutely yes, if we are a nation of equal justice and Trump is convicted of serious felonies,” Trump biographer David Cay Johnston told me. But he quickly added, “Whether it happens is entirely unpredictable.”

Still, New York has a real chance at putting Trump behind bars. The state has jurisdiction over most of his properties and operations relating to his 2016 presidential campaign. Crucially, states also are not subject the U.S. Department of Justice’s rule that a sitting president may not be prosecuted for federal crimes. Trump, therefore, is stripped of his four-year kryptonite shield if he is re-elected. A state indictment of a sitting president, though historically unprecedented, is entirely possible. His DOJ-Roy Cohn, Bill Barr, is constitutionally powerless to intervene.

That should make Trump uneasy, especially as New York Attorney General Letitia James ramps up her own investigations. “We will use every area of the law to investigate President Trump and his business transactions and that of his family,” she declared after taking office two years ago.

At the same time, Vance’s subpoena appears to go beyond obtaining financial records relating to alleged pre-election hush money payments to silence two women, Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. Both of the women claim to have had affairs with Trump. Information gleaned from the DA’s inquiry could expose tax cheating and money laundering as well as bank and insurance fraud, which are felonies.

Johnston told me he’s confident that Vance already has Trump’s New York tax filings. Even though the IRS and state tax authorities share tax information on citizens and business entities, it’s unclear whether he also has the president’s federal returns. The DA is seeking Trump’s financial records from his accounting firm Mazars USA in addition to Deutsche Bank—to compare that data with what he already possesses, looking for corroborating information, according to Johnston.

“Trump has a well-documented history as a tax cheat and for hiding business records,” Johnston said. “This is garden variety tax fraud, a straight-up tax scam that could easily be a felony.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean he will go to jail. More often than not, tax cheats get away with heavy fines in lieu of prison sentences, Johnston said. Moreover, Trump, like many very wealthy people, will continue to throw monkey wrenches into the judicial system with appeal after appeal and other rope-a-dope tactics until revenue agencies finally become open to a low-punitive settlement.

Vegas Odds Trump And Biden

This is echoed by Duncan Levin, formerly a senior staff member under District Attorney Vance and an ex-assistant U.S. attorney. Whether the president would actually be sentenced to prison is a political call, Levin said. “Can you imagine an ex-U.S. president actually being sent to prison?” he told me. “It’s inconceivable that Trump didn’t know about the hush money payments. But it’s highly unlikely that he’d be arrested on misdemeanor charges. They would have to be very serious felonies.” False statements to financial institutions would count.

More likely, he added, the DA may be zeroing in at this point on Trump’s inner circle. “Michael Cohen didn’t act alone. He collaborated with people within the Trump organization to cover up the hush payments just before the election,” Levin said. Look, at least initially, for indictments of Trump underlings.

The good news, though, is that Vance will not put off his investigation and possible indictments until after the November election. DA’s proceed on cases irrespective of extraneous events, including a general election, Levin said.

Vegas Odds Trump Wall Tweet

But the hope of many that Trump could finally be held accountable for his crimes may be remote. At most, one can imagine him behind bars at a white-collar correctional facility like that of his former lawyer Michael Cohen, as opposed to hard time at a penitentiary like Attica. For now, though, time will tell. The Americans who want to see justice carried out are more likely to watch this shamed crook-in-chief spending his remaining years out of office consumed in exhausting and financially draining legal battles, fully exposed for the criminal he’s always been.